In 2018, as tensions with Iran reached a fever pitch, Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman declared that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was worse than Hitler. Seven years later, while the U.S. and Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities and U.S. President Donald Trump personally threatened the life of the "Hitler of the Middle East", Saudi Arabia led the Gulf states in pressuring the Americans to end the war. When President Trump ordered a strike on the strategically significant Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant, instead of applause, the Saudis condemned the U.S. for "the violation of Iran's sovereignty." What changed?
In March of 2023, the Kingdom's role in the world reached a critical turning point when Saudi and Iranian diplomats met in Beijing and restored diplomatic relations with the help of Chinese mediators. This marked the beginning of the end of a cold war between the two regional powers that has lasted nearly five decades. While many factors drove Saudi Arabia towards détente with Iran, at the heart of it was Vision 2030 and how it redefined Saudi interests and ideology. Alongside the MENA region at large, Saudi Arabia has tired of costly wars and is focused instead on its own economic diversification reforms, pushing to project an image of stability and prosperity. To this end, the Saudi-Iranian détente allows the Kingdom to prevent Iran and Iranian proxies like the Houthis from threatening its national security and interfering with the implementation of Vision 2030. This was further facilitated by the reshaping of society under Mohammed bin Salman, with Wahhabism—which competed with Iran's revolutionary ideology for influence in the Muslim world—playing a smaller role in the country and its policies.
The Chinese-brokered deal between the Saudis and Iranians marked two key turning points in Saudi foreign policy. First, while remaining strong partners with the U.S., Saudi Arabia would no longer be part of a growing alignment alongside it and Israel to contain and weaken Iran, instead prioritizing its own economic development and internal security. This growing shift was seen during the Abrahamic Accords, where despite the growing trend of Arab states normalizing relations with Israel to further align with the U.S., the Saudis conditioned this on steps towards a Palestinian state, seeing this as the only way towards regional stability. Secondly, China's role as a mediator showed the depth of Saudi-Chinese ties, demonstrating that Riyadh will maintain ties with both Beijing and Washington while what some have called the New Cold War rages on. In doing so, Saudi Arabia has truly stepped into its own foreign policy, becoming what political scientists call a middle power.
In international relations, a middle power is a country that can use its material advantages to exert global influence, often acting as a mediator between opposing powers. As one of the biggest global producers of oil, Saudi Arabia represents a key strategic interest for governments the world over, from Washington to Beijing and Moscow. Meanwhile, the Kingdom is home to Mecca and Medina, the two holiest sites in Islam, the world's second largest religion with over a billion adherents. Specifically, millions of Muslim travel by land, air, and even sea to Mecca yearly to perform the Hajj, the obligatory pilgrimage to Islam's holiest site. This means irreplaceable soft power for Saudi Arabia on a global level, even as Wahhabism plays a smaller role in Saudi society. Ultimately, combining this spiritual advantage with the worldly pursuit of oil has allowed Saudi Arabia to establish ties with powers across the globe and exercise global influence.
Saudi Arabia hosting the first U.S.-Russia negotiations over Ukraine in February 2025.
Saudi Arabia's role as a middle power came to the forefront for many Western observers during the Russo-Ukrainian War, when Prince Mohammed personally offered to mediate between the two warring states and the United States, Ukraine's main defense partner. By February 2025, Saudi Arabia's leverage over all three parties resulted in the U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Riyadh, the first major summit of its kind since the war started in February 2022. Specifically, Prince Mohammed's relationship with the Ukrainian president allowed him to outflank other growing middle powers like the UAE in playing a mediating role. These relationships have allowed Saudi Arabia to follow in the footsteps of traditional regional mediators like Qatar, which has helped the United States negotiate with a range of American adversaries, from the Taliban to Iran and Hamas.
Saudi Arabia hosting ceasefire negotiations between the Sudanese government and Rapid Support Forces.
Saudi Arabia becoming a go-between among warring parties is not limited to the growing U.S.-Russian rivalry and the Russo-Ukrainian War. Closer to home, Saudi and American mediators hosted ceasefire talks in Jeddah between the Sudanese government and the Rapid Support Force, who have been fighting a brutal war in Sudan since April 2023. Despite these talks failing to bring the war to an end, Jeddah being chosen as the location for the negotiations showcases Saudi Arabia's growing role as a power player both in the Arab world and overall global security architecture. Now, with tensions between Israel and Iran boiling over into war, Saudi Arabia further leveraged its influence to try and end yet another destructive conflict in its backyard.
In today's troubled geopolitical environment, states hosting peace negotiations are often chosen due to their positive relationship with the world and growing economic influence. In Asia, Singapore and Vietnam—two significant emerging economies with the former becoming a financial hub—hosted the first ever direct meetings between the leaders of the United States and North Korea during the first Trump administration. Furthermore, the ability to act as a go-between among different parts of the world has historically fostered massive economic growth; Hong Kong developed into Asia's biggest financial hub and one of the richest cities in the world in no small part due to its role as the international gateway to Mainland China.
Ironically, the Kingdom's shift towards staying out of regional and global power struggles while becoming a platform for international negotiation and diplomacy has in fact enabled it to develop into an emerging power player on the world stage. From rapprochement with Iran to mediation in the Russo-Ukrainian War, these historical foreign policy shifts are massive indicators of how dedicated it is to executing Vision 2030, which aims to remake Saudi Arabia as a hub connecting Africa, Asia, and Europe. The transition from warpower to middle power shows that Saudi Arabia understands the economic implications of being a platform for global diplomacy and commerce. Much like Hong Kong and Singapore, Saudi Arabia's future lies in cashing in on its ties with all corners of the world to become an Afro-Eurasian gateway and economic hub that outlasts its oil.